The Premier League hasn’t had what could be considered a great title race for a while now, we’ve had a few good seasons but mostly, it has just been Manchester City (or in 2019/20 Liverpool) running away with it.
The 2021/22 title race was by far a two-horse race with Manchester City lifting the title with 93 points and Liverpool coming second with 92, coming down to the last day of the season. However, in third place was Chelsea on 74 points, nearly 20 points behind! Last season was decent but Arsenal kind of bottled it, as per usual.
But the 2023/24 title race has been what can only be described as different gravy. Between the top 5 teams, there are only 10 points, at the time of writing the table looks like this:
| Club | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | GF | GA | GD | Points |
| Liverpool | 25 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 59 | 24 | 35 | 57 |
| Arsenal | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 58 | 22 | 36 | 55 |
| Man City | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 53 |
| Aston Villa | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 49 |
| Tottenham | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 47 |
Aston Villa and Tottenham aren’t out of it yet, but the fact the top 3 teams are so close is kind of incredible to see really.
Liverpool, Arsenal and City have all been brilliant this season, but when it comes to the head-to-head between the “Big 6” Arsenal have the advantage after getting a draw and a win against Liverpool this season and a win over City, who they still have to play again in March. Liverpool have had a draw with City at the Etihad and still have a game at Anfield against the Manchester outfit to come in March.
The question remains then, who is going to win the title race this season? I’m going to look at each of the top 3 teams and break down their title credentials, starting at the top with Liverpool.
Favourites for the title race
Liverpool – A last hurrah for Klopp?
Liverpool were nothing short of dreadful last season, they played every possible game in 2021/22 winning the FA Cup, and the Carabao Cup, but losing the Champions League final and losing out in the title race on the last day of the season. The players were exhausted and couldn’t quite get things going.
But, the end of last season saw a lot of players leaving the club so this season Liverpool are in a bit of a transitional period, with a full midfield rebuild which saw them sign Alexis Mac Allister from Brighton, Dominik Szoboszlai from RB Leipzig, Ryan Gravenberch from Bayern Munich and Wataru Endo from VfB Stuttgart.
Not to mention the never-ending injury saga surrounding Thiago, as well as last season’s midfield star Stefan Bajcetic being injured too, nobody particularly knew what to expect from the Merseyside outfit this season.
They’ve had plenty of injuries like Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson, Alisson, Salah, Diogo Jota. They’ve missed players due to the African Cup of Nations and the Asia Cup, and they’ve had an incredible 20% of all VAR mistakes this season go against them including a clear goal against Spurs given as offside and a clear handball against Arsenal being ignored.
Yet, somehow they’re still leading the title race, in the Carabao Cup final and into the next round of both the FA Cup and the Europa League. Are they overachieving this season? Maybe. But given it’s going to be Jurgen Klopp’s last season, it seems fitting that they’d go out with a bang.
In the eyes of pretty much every pundit in the world, Liverpool are still an underdog in this title race, they’re all talking about how City and Arsenal are the teams to watch. That may be so as Liverpool are continuing to pick up more and more injuries, Jota came back and was on fire only to now be out again, possibly til the end of the season.
Does that lack of pressure play into the hands of LFC though? Are they being spurred on by being the underdog? Only time will tell but given they’re performing well even with a lot of forces seemingly working against them and the fact nobody appears to view them as title contenders, Liverpool could sneak under the radar and find themselves lifting another title under Klopp.
Arsenal – Will they hit a wall again?
Arsenal have a point to prove this season, they led the pack at Christmas last season and fell off in a huge way giving the title to City. So, with the bit between their teeth this season, they have truly been a formidable force. Only Liverpool have scored more goals than them in the current title race, but no team has conceded less.
Like Liverpool, they have also had plenty of injuries this season with some big players like Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko missing game time, but they have also been without Jurrien Timber, Thomas Partey, Fabio Vieira, Emile Smith Rowe and Takehiro Tomiyasu for a while now.
Of the top 3 teams, Arsenal have had the most losses with 4, however, unlike the other 2 teams, Arsenal have a really good record of “where it matters most”, against the Big 6. If you look at the “Big 6 head to head” this season, Arsenal have played 6, won 3 and drawn 3, including wins over Liverpool and City.
City have played 6, won 1 drawn 4 lost 1 and Liverpool have played 7, Won 1 Drawn 4 Lost 2. So maybe for Arsenal to march on and win the league they need to tighten things up against teams they should be beating, I think you could say they probably have the best chance of the top 3 to win the title race.
Arsenal have picked up losses at Fulham, Aston Villa and Newcastle as well as getting beat by West Ham at the Emirates. Villa is potentially a title race contender this season and have often played like it, so a loss to Villa isn’t too bad, but dropping points to Fulham and West Ham isn’t necessarily ideal. Newcastle are a good team, but they have been riddled with injuries this season and realistically Arsenal should be beating them.
But since their loss at Fulham, they have gone 5 games unbeaten in the league including the demolitions of West Ham 6-0, Burnley 5-0 and Crystal Palace 5-0, with a win over rivals Liverpool. Are Arsenal the favourites to win the title race? Not quite according to the bookies or pundits.
Manchester City – Still the bookies’ favourite
Manchester City kind of speak for themselves, a team assembled with billions of pounds, managed by Pep Guardiola, that has absolutely dominated almost every title race in recent history. With the likes of Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne, it’s easy to see why they’ve been that way.
But this season they haven’t been without their injuries, league top scorer Erling Haaland has missed plenty of football this season, but World Cup winner Julian Alvarez has filled his spot nicely. Kevin de Bruyne has also missed a large chunk but has returned to the team as if he never missed a beat.
While they are still playing some incredible football and at times scoring for the sheer fun of it, City haven’t been without their flaws this season. With a 2-1 loss away at Wolves, a 1-0 loss against title rivals Arsenal and a 1-0 loss away at Aston Villa who are a solid side, City really should be beating them all. They don’t seem like their usual invincible selves. They have been under a lot of pressure off the field, however, which could be the reason they aren’t running away in the title race.
The club has come under a lot of scrutiny over the years with claims of them breaching Financial Fair Play regulations, 115 breaches in fact. And with Everton being deducted 10 points for their single violation, everybody has been talking about potential punishments for Manchester City if they are to be found guilty of these violations.
Could they be relegated to the bottom of the league pyramid? Could they be stripped of their titles? Could they be banned from competing in Europe, like they should’ve been the year they won the Champions League, but that’s a story for another time. With Injuries on the field and all this pressure off the field, are City crumbling? Or are they going to tighten things up and storm on to the end of the season? If they can beat Arsenal and Liverpool in their games against them, I’d say the title is all but theirs.
Well there you have it, that’s my view on the title race this season. For me, right now, Arsenal are the standout team. They’ve slipped up against lesser opposition but they have big wins over two of their title rivals which could make all the difference. The only difference is that Liverpool’s only losses so far have come against Big 6 teams, which both included big VAR mistakes.
Then there’s City, while they aren’t their dominant, unbeatable selves this season, they also have the pressure of being under the microscope for 115 Financial Fair Play violations, could that be affecting the team? Perhaps, but you can’t write them off just yet. With only 3 months to go until the end of the Premier League season, I’m expecting lots of twists and turns in the title race, but if it comes down to the final day with three horses still in the race? We could genuinely have the best title race we have seen in years.
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